Grey money, charter reform split parties into blocs
A month before the Feb 8 election, Thailand’s parties are polarising over “grey capital” and constitutional change — shaping coalition maths after polling day
With one month left before Thailand’s 8 February general election, political parties are increasingly dividing into clearer camps — driven by two hot-button issues: the fight against “grey capital” and whether to push ahead with rewriting the constitution through a referendum.
On the “anti-grey” front, the People’s Party has long framed itself around a hard line of “no grey, no us”, and party leader and prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has reiterated that stance by ruling out backing a second term for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. He has also signalled the party would not join hands with the Kla Tham Party in forming a government.
The Democrat Party, led by Abhisit Vejjajiva, has taken a similar tack, publicly rejecting cooperation with parties it associates with grey-capital politics. The party has pitched this stance as a core campaign theme, alongside promises of tougher enforcement.
The practical consequence is straightforward: if a post-election coalition includes Kla Tham in the equation, both the People’s Party and Democrats would likely end up on the opposition benches — unless they win enough seats to build an alternative coalition, or become the deciding “kingmaker” in coalition negotiations.
By contrast, two major players — Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai — have avoided locking themselves into pre-election red lines. Their strategy appears designed to preserve post-election bargaining power and keep multiple coalition pathways open, depending on the final seat tally.
Bhumjaithai, meanwhile, is focused on maximising constituency seats by consolidating local political networks and recruiting influential local figures, while keeping its coalition options flexible. Observers say that approach aims to position the party at the centre of government formation talks, even if it falls short of being the largest party.
Smaller and mid-sized parties are also recalibrating. Kla Tham faces a tough campaign and is pushing to secure enough MPs — widely seen as the 40–50 seat range — to remain decisive in coalition formation. Palang Pracharath, after leadership changes, is seeking to maintain enough seats to stay relevant as a potential coalition partner rather than a leading force.
On constitutional reform, the dividing line looks different. Several parties seen as conservative or status-quo leaning have taken a cautious approach towards a referendum for a new charter — a stance critics argue reflects the fact that the current rules still benefit them. The reform push has been more visible from Pheu Thai and the People’s Party, as well as civil society groups such as iLaw. Pheu Thai has positioned veteran politician Chaturon Chaisang as a key driver of its referendum campaign efforts.
Even so, the referendum debate risks being drowned out by the election itself, with limited time and momentum for a nationwide mobilisation — and practical constraints that reduce opportunities for participation compared with a full-scale election campaign.
As the final stretch begins, the sharpest campaign messages are increasingly designed to force voters to “choose a side”, while leaving post-election coalition arithmetic to be settled once the results are in. The prevailing expectation among political watchers is that the next government may be formed by a merger of two major blocs — leaving a third camp to serve as the opposition.
