Thailand’s Prime Ministerial Candidates Face High-Stakes Search for 'Economic Tsar'
As public debt nears the 70% limit, the choice of Finance Minister will determine if Thailand can avert a sovereign credit rating downgrade post-election
- The search for a new Finance Minister is critical as Thailand faces a potential sovereign credit rating downgrade due to public debt approaching its 70% of GDP limit.
- The leading prime ministerial candidates are pursuing different strategies, with options including a party leader (Pheu Thai), a named expert for stability (Bhumjaithai), or a high-profile external appointee (People's Party).
- The urgency is heightened by a worsening fiscal position, with Thailand's interest-to-revenue ratio nearing a 12% benchmark used by rating agencies to determine investment-grade status.
- The chosen candidate must possess the credibility to reassure international investors and global rating agencies about the country's ability to manage its debt and spending.
As public debt nears the 70% limit, the choice of Finance Minister will determine if Thailand can avert a sovereign credit rating downgrade post-election.
With the general election set for 8 February, Thailand’s political leaders are locked in a critical search for a Finance Minister capable of navigating a brewing fiscal storm.
The appointment is seen as a "make-or-break" decision for the next administration, as the kingdom grapples with stagnant growth and a precarious sovereign credit rating.
The economic backdrop is sobering. Following a difficult 2025, during which both Moody’s and Fitch Ratings shifted Thailand’s outlook to 'Negative', the incoming 'Chancellor' must convince global agencies that the nation can manage its ballooning debt.
Public debt is now hovering near the 70% of GDP statutory ceiling, leaving the next government with almost no fiscal "wiggle room" for populist spending.
Three Parties, Three Contenders
The three frontrunners to lead the next coalition government have adopted vastly different strategies for the finance portfolio:
The People’s Party: While the party has been vocal about its reformist agenda, its candidate for Finance Minister remains a closely guarded "secret". Speculation suggests that Sirikanya Tansakul may opt for a high-profile external expert to give the markets confidence in their 4% annual growth target.
Bhumjaithai Party: Seeking stability, the party has explicitly named Ekniti Nitithanprapas as its choice for the role. Their platform focuses on continuity, aiming to revive stalled infrastructure projects and maintain a "3% plus" growth rate through established fiscal frameworks.
Pheu Thai Party: Having elevated Julapun Amornvivat to party leader and PM candidate, there is a strong possibility he will step up from his previous role as Deputy Finance Minister. Pheu Thai is promising a more aggressive 5% growth target, including a controversial proposal to shift the central bank’s focus from inflation targeting to exchange rate management.
The Fiscal Red Line
The urgency of the appointment is underscored by a rapidly deteriorating fiscal position.
Dr Athiphat Muthitacharoen of Chulalongkorn University warns that Thailand’s interest-to-revenue ratio has reached 11%, dangerously close to the 12% benchmark used by rating agencies to determine "Investment Grade" status.
"Whoever takes the mantle will face the unenviable task of explaining Thailand’s revenue-to-expenditure plan to sceptical global agencies," Dr Athiphat said. "If the interest burden hits that 12% ceiling next year, the pressure for a formal credit downgrade will become immense."
A Quest for Credibility
For the incoming Prime Minister, the choice is not merely technical but political. The successful candidate must possess the gravitas to command the respect of the civil service while reassuring international investors.
As Thailand stands at an economic crossroads, the identity of the next Finance Minister will be the clearest signal yet of whether the country can reform its way out of the middle-income trap or sink further into a debt-fuelled quagmire.
