Multiple headwinds on Thai tourism could push 2025 foreign arrivals down 7%

Thailand’s tourism industry is bracing for a difficult year in 2025, with multiple headwinds emerging since January—most notably a sharp contraction in short-haul markets, particularly China and ASEAN. 

As a result, total foreign arrivals for the full year are expected to decline by around 7%, reaching an estimated 33.16 million visitors compared with the previous year.

Market-by-market data indicates that short-haul tourism is under significant pressure. Chinese arrivals are projected to fall by 33%, Hong Kong by 29%, South Korea by 16%, and Taiwan by 11%. Among ASEAN travellers, Vietnam is down 33%, Laos 19%, and Cambodia 55%. Only a few markets are showing growth: the Philippines (+19.51%), India (+16%), and Myanmar (+17%).

This sharp contraction contrasts starkly with long-haul markets, which have continued to expand throughout the year. Arrivals from Russia are up 12%, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) up 9%, the United Kingdom up 13%, Germany up 11%, France up 14.3%, Sweden up 9%, Australia up 5%, the United States up 5%, and Israel up a striking 49.62%. In contrast, arrivals from the Middle East slipped by 0.84%.

Despite the positive performance of long-haul markets, their volume cannot offset the downturn in short-haul markets—especially China, which traditionally accounts for around 28% of total foreign arrivals. This imbalance is the key factor driving the projected 7% year-on-year decline in overall international tourism.

From January 1 to November 16, 2025, Thailand recorded 28.2 million foreign visitors, generating 1.30 trillion baht. For the full year, foreign arrivals are expected to reach 33.16 million, generating 1.53 trillion baht—down 5% from 2024 and far below the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) early-year target of 39 million arrivals and 2.23 trillion baht in revenue.

Comparing arrivals by region with pre-Covid levels in 2019, this year’s data shows that ASEAN markets have recovered to 91% of pre-pandemic levels, while Northeast Asia—driven largely by China—has recovered only 52%.

In contrast, long-haul markets have not only recovered but surpassed 2019 levels: Europe is at 129% of pre-Covid volume, the United States at 103%, South Asia at 122%, Oceania (Australia–New Zealand) at 108%, the Middle East at 115%, and Africa at 105%.

Thailand’s tourism sector faces pressure from multiple directions

The slowdown in foreign arrivals this year stems from a range of factors that have weighed on the industry since early 2025. Among the most damaging was the high-profile case of Wang Xing, who was lured into Thailand and abducted by cross-border scam networks, raising serious safety concerns among Chinese travellers.

An earthquake that affected several parts of Thailand earlier this year further undermined traveller confidence in key destinations.

Global economic headwinds have added to the strain. The world economy continues to cool, while tariff-retaliation measures under US President Donald Trump’s policy framework, combined with the Israel–Iran conflict, have dampened sentiment and travel spending.

The baht also appreciated by 8% against the US dollar between May and September, making travel to Thailand more expensive compared with regional competitors.

Border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, inconsistent law enforcement, and reputational damage from ongoing issues involving scam networks, call-centre fraud and human trafficking have further eroded traveller confidence.

At the same time, Thailand faces intensifying competition from emerging destinations that offer fresh experiences and improving tourism infrastructure, including Vietnam and China. Natural disasters and structural limitations in Thailand’s own infrastructure—covering facilities, tourism products, services and workforce skills—have also held back recovery.

Three urgent measures proposed to revive tourism

To revive momentum in the remainder of this year and into 2026—during which the TAT is targeting 7% growth in tourism revenue, or around 2.8 trillion baht from both domestic and international markets—industry leaders believe foreign arrivals could recover to nearly 38 million visitors if swift action is taken.

To achieve this, TAT and private-sector tourism bodies have joined forces and held discussions with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, urging the government to implement three urgent measures within the next three months:

1. Rebuild Thailand’s image and restore confidence

This includes strengthening safety, rebuilding traveller trust and launching proactive communication campaigns to counter negative narratives circulating on social media. Proposed actions include incentives for film productions in Thailand, stronger suppression of scam networks and call-centre gangs, and more visible enforcement.

TAT also plans to scale up global promotions featuring K-pop superstar Lalisa “Lisa” Manoban, its Amazing Thailand Brand Ambassador, while attracting major international events such as world-class concerts, major sports tournaments and high-impact festivals, including Vijit Chao Phraya 2025, the SEA Games and the Amazing Thailand Countdown.

2. Launch tactical campaigns to stimulate foreign demand

These campaigns will leverage Thailand’s value-for-money appeal. Key proposals include reviving the inter-dom flight scheme—under which foreign visitors who purchase an international ticket to Thailand receive a complimentary domestic flight—and offering additional incentives for the MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions) sector.

3. Introduce tax measures to spur domestic travel

Recommendations include reviving the Khon La Khrueng (Let’s Go Halves) co-payment scheme, tax-deductible domestic tourism expenses for Thai travellers and corporate meetings, and a temporary reduction in excise tax on aviation fuel to lower domestic airfares and increase flight frequencies.

A proposed “Tour Thai Khon La Khrueng” scheme would provide co-payments from the government and tourism operators—covering guides, tour firms, airlines, boats and transport services—offering up to 3,000 baht per person per trip to stimulate domestic travel through licensed operators.

For sustained growth, the private sector has urged the National Tourism Policy Committee to advance several strategic priorities, including reforming tourism laws, raising service standards, strengthening infrastructure—particularly in secondary cities—promoting investment in world-class tourism products, and reshaping Thailand’s overall tourism brand and identity.

Industry leaders warn that failure to act promptly could see Thailand downgraded from a “primary destination” to merely “one of many options” for global travellers in the years ahead.