TAT sees Thai tourism rebound despite arrivals dip
TAT may revise its 2026 foreign tourist target as long-haul markets improve and Middle East arrivals fall less than expected
Thailand’s tourism outlook is showing signs of recovery, prompting the Tourism Authority of Thailand to consider revising its 2026 foreign tourist target after the impact of the Middle East conflict appeared less severe than previously feared.
TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency’s earlier downside scenario, which projected 30-32 million foreign arrivals this year if the conflict dragged on for three months, may prove too cautious.
She said recent data showed encouraging signs in long-haul markets, especially the Middle East, where arrivals had been expected to fall by around 40% but were down by less than 30% in the first five months of the year.
The stronger signal was also reflected at Thailand Travel Mart Plus 2026, or TTM+ 2026, scheduled for June 10-12 at the Nong Nooch Pattaya International Convention and Exhibition Centre in Chonburi.
Many buyers from the Middle East joined the event to negotiate tourism deals, with particular interest in health and wellness products, new campaigns and marketing strategies once the situation eases.
TAT is also looking to attract Middle Eastern airlines to open routes to aviation hubs in Thailand, including U-Tapao Airport, to prepare for future demand.
Thapanee said the agency may revise its tourist target again. TAT had earlier expected foreign arrivals in 2026 to fall by 5-10%, but with the situation still in a “wait and see” phase, the decline is now expected to be clearly below 5%.
The new estimate could see arrivals fall by only 1-2%, or possibly avoid a contraction altogether, when compared with the 32.97 million foreign visitors recorded in 2025.
She said the decline now looked far smaller than previously feared and could even improve further.
TAT will continue monitoring the situation before discussing the revised figures with the tourism and sports minister and the TAT board.
The agency will also focus on increasing spending per head among foreign visitors. A new revenue target has yet to be finalised, but Thapanee said it would not be lower than last year’s level.
However, visa policy remains a key challenge in some markets, particularly India.
The Cabinet on May 19 approved in principle the cancellation of the 60-day visa-free measure for tourists from 93 countries and territories, returning to the previous visa-free rules for each country.
Although the change has not yet taken effect, Thapanee said discussions with relevant agencies were needed to maintain growth from the Indian market. The move could affect not only general tourists, but also MICE travellers and wedding groups.
She said Thailand should not focus only on total foreign arrival numbers or compare itself too closely with competitors.
Instead, the key issue should be whether the country can attract more long-haul travellers and generate higher tourism revenue.
“The important task is to stimulate spending and support the factors that influence tourist expenditure, by opening up new groups of travellers, new partners and new forms of cooperation,” Thapanee said.
Tourism and Sports Ministry data showed that Thailand welcomed 14,032,649 foreign tourists from January 1 to May 31, down 2.3% from the same period last year. Their spending generated around 679.274 billion baht, down 2.48%.
By region, Middle East arrivals, excluding Iran and Israel, stood at 150,779 in the first five months, down 24.83%.
Europe recorded 3,965,179 arrivals, up 0.26%, while the Americas posted 704,789 arrivals, up 0.31%. Asia-Pacific arrivals totalled 9,146,708, down 3.08%.
In May alone, Thailand welcomed 2,346,845 foreign tourists, up 3.54% from the same month last year. Middle East arrivals totalled 47,726, down 1.9%, while Europe recorded 365,345 visitors, down 0.35%.
Arrivals from the Americas rose 3.56% to 102,389, while Asia-Pacific arrivals increased 4.53% to 1,818,479.
