Iran war shakes energy markets; Thailand flagged as Asia’s most exposed importer
Bank of America Global Research says Thailand has Asia’s deepest negative energy trade balance, heightening exposure as oil and LNG prices surge amid the Iran war.
Research by Bank of America Global Research says Thailand has the largest negative energy trade balance in Asia, underscoring its heavy reliance on imported oil and gas and making it especially vulnerable to global energy-market volatility as tensions between Iran and the United States and Israel intensify in the Middle East.
While major economies such as China and Japan import large amounts of oil and natural gas in absolute terms, the research suggests Thailand ranks highest in Asia when measured as a share of GDP. In 2025, Thailand’s net energy imports were estimated at around 6% of GDP, ahead of South Korea (about 4%) and Singapore (in a similar range), while China ranked far lower by this measure. Only Australia and Malaysia were described as net energy exporters in the region.
Oil prices jumped sharply on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, on fears that an expanding Middle East war could disrupt oil and gas supplies for an extended period. WTI rose 4.68% to US$74.56 a barrel, while Brent climbed 4.71% to US$81.40, after surging more than 9% earlier in the session.
In Asia, spot LNG prices also spiked to their highest level in three years, with the regional benchmark reported to have jumped to US$25.40 per million Btu in Asian trading—more than doubling from last week. The rally has been driven by worries over prolonged disruption as Qatar’s output remains halted and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz stay constrained.
Japan and Vietnam most dependent on Middle East oil
Bank of America Global Research also noted that, although Thailand is among the largest net energy importers, it is not the most dependent on the Middle East specifically. By share of oil imports sourced from the Middle East, the Philippines and Japan were the most reliant—at 95% and 94%, respectively—followed by Vietnam at 88%.
Thailand was assessed at a mid-range level, with about 58% of oil imports sourced from the Middle East. Thailand’s total oil imports were put at around US$29 billion, of which more than US$17 billion came from the Middle East.
Analysts say that if the war drags on and disrupts oil or LNG transport, global energy prices could remain elevated, hitting Asian energy importers through higher costs, inflation pressures, and weaker trade and external balances—especially in countries with deep negative energy balances such as Thailand.
Nomura: Thailand among most vulnerable
Nomura struck a similar tone in a note to clients, saying Thailand, India, South Korea and the Philippines are among the most vulnerable Asian economies to higher oil prices because of their high import dependence, while Malaysia could be a relative beneficiary as an energy exporter.
Nomura said Thailand stands out as a clear “loser” from an oil-price shock, citing Thailand’s net oil imports of about 4.7% of GDP and estimating that each 10% rise in oil prices could worsen Thailand’s current account balance by around 0.5 percentage points of GDP.
Meanwhile, Go Katayama, an insights analyst at Kpler, said that for many Southeast Asian countries the first impact would likely be inflation from higher energy prices rather than immediate shortages. LNG buyers reliant on the spot market, he added, could face sharply higher procurement costs as Asia competes with Europe for Atlantic LNG cargoes.
