Thai government to review fiscal framework amid Middle East conflict

A Government House source said the government is preparing to convene the State Fiscal and Financial Policy Commission soon to review the medium-term fiscal framework for fiscal years 2027-2030 again, after the economic situation was affected by the ongoing war and conflict in the Middle East.

This has made it necessary to revise economic growth estimates again.

“The government is likely to call a meeting of the fiscal and financial policy board soon, earlier than before, ahead of preparing next year’s budget, because it has to plan. The situation in the Middle East has not yet ended and is affecting estimates of the government’s future revenue and expenditure. It is therefore necessary to speed up another review of the entire medium-term fiscal framework,” the source said.

Previously, at meetings of the four economic agencies, the Ministry of Finance, the Bureau of the Budget, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) and the Bank of Thailand (BOT), the agencies acknowledged the framework for expenditure estimates, revenue estimates and the government’s fiscal position three years in advance, covering 2026 to 2030.

Part of this was under the previous medium-term fiscal framework, which had already been considered by the Cabinet.

Later, however, the NESDC announced its latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures in February 2026.

They showed that the Thai economy had expanded more strongly than previously assessed, growing by 2.4% for the whole of 2025.

The Thai economy in 2026 is expected to expand by 1.5-2.5%, with a midpoint of 2%.

However, as the economy this year is still being affected by the Middle East situation, the details of the medium-term fiscal framework must be reviewed again.

For the medium-term fiscal framework for fiscal years 2027-2030, approved under the Cabinet resolution on Tuesday (November 18, 2025), details on economic status and forecasts stated that in 2026, GDP was expected to grow by 1.2-2.2% (midpoint 1.7%), the GDP deflator was 0.7%, and average inflation was expected at 0.0-1.0%. In 2027, GDP was expected to grow by 2.1-3.1% (midpoint 2.6%), the GDP deflator was 0.9%, and average inflation was expected to be 0.4-1.4%.

In 2028-2029, GDP was expected to grow by 2.3-3.3% (midpoint 2.8%), while in 2030 it was expected to grow by 2.5-3.5% (midpoint 3.0%).

As for fiscal status and projections, net government revenue estimates were set at THB3 trillion for fiscal 2027, THB3.145 trillion for fiscal 2028, THB3.274 trillion for fiscal 2029 and THB3.422 trillion for fiscal 2030.

Estimated budget expenditure was set at THB3.788 trillion for fiscal 2027, THB3.826 trillion for fiscal 2028, THB3.864 trillion for fiscal 2029 and THB3.903 trillion for fiscal 2030.

Based on those net government revenue and expenditure estimates, the government would run a budget deficit of THB788 billion in fiscal 2027, or 3.9% of GDP; THB681 billion in fiscal 2028, or 3.3% of GDP; THB590 billion in fiscal 2029, or 2.7% of GDP; and THB481 billion in fiscal 2030, or 2.1% of GDP.

In addition, outstanding public debt at the end of fiscal 2025 stood at THB12.22629 trillion, equivalent to 64.82% of GDP.

The projected public debt-to-GDP ratios were 68.17% for fiscal 2026, 69.36% for fiscal 2027, 69.78% for fiscal 2028, 69.52% for fiscal 2029 and 68.22% for fiscal 2030.