Mapping the New World Order: Any Venture into a Changed Economic Landscape Needs a Guiding Light

Markets around the world were jolted into panic mode and not even hints from Washington of backpedalling could offer much succour amid the turmoil. Indeed, this apparent vacillation compounded the prevailing sense of uncertainty, so that fears of a global recession continue to cast shadows over trading floors and platforms. 

The devil you know or the comfort of strangers?

The crisis has prompted world leaders to hurriedly adopt placatory or retaliatory postures, weighing up soft-powered diplomacy or economic hardball as strategies likelier to protect their exposed economies. Regardless of whether the goal is to win enough favour with President Trump to clinch a trade deal or attain security from partnerships forged elsewhere, the pressure on countries to take sides and abandon erstwhile friends has been ratcheted up. 

With international relations fracturing before our eyes, the tide of globalization – which has arisen with seeming inevitability for the past 75 years – has slowed to the point at which regression may well kick in. The status quo has been upended and economies are left reeling in shock. But where does this leave Thailand and what are the prospects for its many aspiring, outward-facing SMEs?

A window of opportunity

The short answer is that hidden somewhere behind all the doom and gloom is a gleaming window of opportunity through which we might witness Thailand’s businesses – from conglomerates to SMEs – bestride the world stage more purposefully than ever before. The rude imposition of a new world order represents a chance for reinvention and repositioning, allowing the Kingdom’s traditional role in global commerce to be reshaped. As ever, seizing the moment entails business leaders discerning the means to build competitive advantage, and few environments are more conducive to unearthing opportunity than a dramatically altered landscape.

The components of a successful business proposition tend to be sector-specific, informed by myriad contextual factors, but a number of fundamental strategic decisions apply to all. For instance, while noting that recent developments offered a potential opportunity to “restructure production, reduce costs, and enhance long-term competitiveness in certain industries”, the Thai government has advised exporters to “seek new potential markets to reduce reliance on a single market”. This might be achieved through diversification into new product lines or alternatively by expanding into previously untapped markets. 

Nonetheless, spotting a promising opportunity is no guarantee of success; rather it’s the embarkation point for a lengthy journey over harsh and unforgiving terrain. And as experienced trekkers and hikers will testify, any assurance of reaching one’s destination in a safe and timely manner comes from making thorough preparations. Moreover, the dangers of losing one’s way or coming unstuck in alien territory are best mitigated by lighting the way ahead with beacons of knowledge, experience and insight.

In order to identify attributes vital for any business aspiring to break free of the old world order’s shackles, we must first consider the commercial roles traditionally held by Thai firms. This will lend context to subsequent consideration of where companies most often come unstuck when attempting to replicate home success on foreign soil. Finally, I will outline how collaborative schemes can help SMEs attain a standard of roadworthiness to steer clear of the usual obstacles and pitfalls.

Numbers behind the narrative

To reflect with any clarity on how Thailand’s present-day identity and standing was shaped by its economic history requires rigorous analysis. All too often the globalized economy’s complexities are glossed over by simplified assumptions that arrive at questionable conclusions under misleading headlines. 

Recent reportage of Thailand’s trade surplus with the United States is a pertinent example of such nuance. The Ministry of Commerce reported that in 2024 this amounted to US$35.4 billion (1.23 trillion baht), but the more widely reported figure for the year has been US$45.6 billion (1.59 trillion baht), as posted in Washington. Statistical discrepancies are not unheard of in this context, but when data which is disputed by as much as 30% underpins policies liable to affect the livelihoods of millions, digging deeper becomes a moral imperative. 

Doing so reveals that trade between the two countries last year mostly consisted of electronic items, hard disks and electrical appliances. These all typically entail foreign companies – commonly from China, Japan, Korea and even the US – operating some or all of their manufacturing processes in Thailand, which makes the import/export designations of such products less clear-cut than sometimes portrayed. 

Deeper analysis highlights how Thailand’s main contribution to many industrial processes continues to be serving as either an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) producing items on behalf of foreign brands or as an offshoring hub offering foreign companies access to its resources at competitive rates. Both are variants of a role that enjoys very limited control over productivity and resource allocation, having mostly ceded this to external parties instead. And as this has been the case for most of the modern era, it has been to the detriment of local business managers.

Therefore, most Thai businesses looking to compete toe-to-toe with internationally established brands will need to compensate for these shortcomings by finding ways to rapidly fill knowledge gaps.

The kitchen of the world

However, it should be noted that one sector has long served as an outlier, bucking this trend and helping Thai companies acquire kinds of experience and expertise rarely available to those in OEM and offshoring roles. 

No matter how much the landscape has changed, specialization remains a fundamental economic principle. In keeping with its long-held soubriquet of the Kitchen of the World, one of Thailand’s greatest assets is its comprehensive agricultural value chain – extending from a diverse array of crops and livestock to its extensive food processing and packaging capabilities – which has proven its resilience even in times of crisis.

The importance of the food security this generates cannot be understated, above all for the wellbeing of the country’s population but additionally – through systematic agricultural management – for what it offers the rest of the world as exports. And this will only become more important as the effects of climate change jeopardise productivity around the world.

Moreover, the agricultural sector represents a model for the end-to-end allocation of resources under Thai ownership, directly benefiting the Thai economy. So although it accounted for just 3% of Thai-US trade in 2024 – predominantly in rice, tinned seafood and pet food – it enjoyed much greater (>75%) domestic circulation than many industrial value chains (20-30%). This means that more resources are sourced locally by Thai-owned enterprises, which are likelier to re-invest their earnings domestically. 

A little help from our friends

Time and again we have seen Thai companies – and particularly SMEs – sample domestic triumph and promptly set off on overseas endeavours without adequate preparation or guidance, believing that whatever has worked at home will seamlessly translate to conquering foreign markets. Yet when exposed to the unforgiving realities of the global marketplace, they often realise their business models and technological infrastructures are hopelessly outmoded. They learn first-hand the near impossibility of mounting a serious challenge to world-leading brands without the requisite entrepreneurial expertise, agility or capacity to innovate.

One way to avoid learning experiences so harsh and costly is to pursue strategic partnerships, thereby embracing the principle of a rising tide lifting all boats, rather than the isolationist posturing seen elsewhere. Closer cooperation between comparable economies serve to facilitate cross-border learning between public and private sector stakeholders, improving efficiencies through shared best practice, and accelerating the growth of agro-industry by exchanging technological innovation. It also enables the closer management of supply and demand, keeping prices steady and markets stable. For example, farmers cultivating rice or rubber would benefit immensely from greater cooperation between Thailand, India and Vietnam.

Tending to talent and technology

A prerequisite to casting furtive glances across the fence at neighbouring markets should be the assurance that the confidence placed in one’s product is well founded. For this, some basic housekeeping is in order. 

For example, substantial investments to improve agricultural efficiency and quality will depend on issues pertaining to farmers’ land rights being addressed. Potential investors would also seek a guarantee of farmland receiving sufficient water supplies to make transformative development feasible.

Another legacy from traditionally filling OEM and offshoring roles is that – when compared to many other nations – Thailand’s adeptness at manufacturing (and consumption, for that matter) is not matched by a capacity for innovation. Research and development units rarely have the prominence in Thai organisational structures they do elsewhere. The best way of addressing this will be to implement a meticulously planned strategy that balances a lowering of the barriers that currently deter pioneering talent and angel investors (e.g. tax issues, FTAs) with measures to ensure that Thailand is the ultimate beneficiary of newly created jobs, upskilled workers, the utilisation of local resources, and ultimately the establishing of Thai brands which offer value at local, regional and global levels.  

This brings us to an overview of the obstacles likeliest to derail overseas ventures, and what SMEs can do to avoid them:

Obstacle 1: Misreading unfamiliar markets
There is a tendency for SMEs to roll out products in other countries based primarily on their selling well in the Thai market. This marks failure to truly understand customer needs, which often turn out to be very different away from home. This might be as simple as how something is packaged or as complex as conforming to safety standards. 

Obstacle 2: Flawed branding and marketing
Thai companies are often criticised – not without some justification – for making good products yet failing to communicate their value to consumers. Likely another consequence of OEM and offshoring roles rarely contributing to marketing or sales, we fall short of the ability world-leading brands have to evoke and inspire the trust, loyalty and love of a customer base through effective promotional campaigns and storytelling. Thai SMEs have also been guilty of failing to recognise which platforms are essential in different markets for successful branding.

Obstacle 3: Inadequate financing
Thai SMEs often flounder overseas having underestimated the scale of investment needed to succeed. Insufficient funding might, for example, hinder an imperative to ramp up productivity, or else hamper efforts to bring product quality in line with standards demanded in international markets. Thailand regrettably lacks matching fund or venture capital provision as developed as in other countries, while government support remains limited and subject to lengthy delays. Moreover, the aforementioned shortcomings impact investor confidence in Thai SMEs and start-ups, exacerbating a vicious cycle. 

The Platform of Opportunity model 

The likelihood of a company steering clear of these obstacles is greatly improved by undertaking rigorous preparation and knowing where to solicit expert advice and assistance to fill existing gaps. Several schemes are presently being run in Thailand with the objective of giving SMEs with this kind of support. 

One of these is CP Group’s Platform of Opportunity, a collaborative initiative seeking to facilitate partnerships and provide knowledge and resources to local producers and start-ups. By gaining access to the massive e-commerce channels run by Makro and Lotus’s, registered participants are given the opportunity to broaden their reach and expand their market access.  

Platform of Opportunity’s supportive ecosystem comprises of five main components:

1. Capacity building
SMEs are able to build up their knowledge of effective business practices through training workshops and mentorships with industry experts arranged by CP Seeding. Popular topics include effective pricing, optimized packaging, meeting FDA standards, and strategic planning for expanding distribution channels.

2. Meeting quality and compliance standards
Support is made available for SMEs to be sure of meeting modern retail standards, both domestically and internationally, with input from Thai government agencies. The growing demand from governments, retailers and consumers to be assured of ethically sourced ingredients makes traceability a key consideration here.

3. Appropriate support infrastructure
The scheme advises SMEs on suitable logistics systems for meeting collection, distribution and delivery expectations and appropriate payment terms to maintain cash flow and reduce financial risk.

4. Increased market access
Being granted physical and virtual shelf space within Makro’s wholesale and Lotus’s retail channels offer participating SMEs the chance to bring their products nationwide B2B and B2C attention.

5. Effective brand communication 
Moreover, gaining a spot in a special zone highlighting ‘Thai Quality’ or ‘The Best of Thailand’ is an excellent way of increasing the visibility of a brand’s unique identity and refining its story in preparation for overseas markets.

The road ahead

The knowledge and support provided by initiatives like Platform of  Opportunity enable SMEs to embark on international journeys better prepared and with greater confidence than before. But continued progress and expansion will almost certainly depend upon the ability to secure a steady stream of talent and investment in an ecosystem in which entrepreneurial dynamism and innovative vision is actively encouraged. 

A way of facilitating this would be the establishing of a ‘Deal Flow’ that brings SMEs, pioneers and investors together, sharing compatible attributes, ambitions and drive. By providing an environment conducive to such exchanges, Thailand would position itself as a hub for innovation and a launchpad into the global marketplace for brands with a unique identity and a distinct value proposition. If enough businesses follow suit, the effect on the Thai economy would be transformative and hugely beneficial to the country and its people.

Helen Keller wrote that “a bend in the road is not the end of the road… unless you fail to make the turn.” The past few weeks have seen the way ahead take some unexpected twists, but SMEs will ride the storm by continuing to think big while harnessing the insight, experience and expertise of friends.