UN warns world failing to curb global warming

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its Emissions Gap Report 2025, warning that global progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains alarmingly slow, with the planet on track to warm by 2.8°C this century — far exceeding the Paris Agreement target of limiting temperature rise to below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C.

The report notes that, despite some policy advances over the past year, many climate regulations could soon be rolled back following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and cancel multiple pollution-control and clean-energy policies in the United States.

The report compares national pledges with actual emissions cuts and finds a massive gap between commitments and implementation. Even if all short-term pledges were fulfilled, global temperatures would still rise by 2.3°C — but achieving that, the report adds, remains unlikely as many countries fall short of their goals.

Current projections show the world heading toward 2.8°C of warming, slightly down from 3.1°C estimated in 2024, thanks to cleaner energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles expanding rapidly in China and Europe.

However, scientists warn that even a half-degree increase can have catastrophic consequences — exposing tens of millions more people to deadly heatwaves, droughts, and coastal flooding. The planet has already warmed by around 1.3°C since pre-industrial times.

“Every fraction of a degree matters — in lives lost, damage done, and the risk of irreversible tipping points,” said Anne Olhoff, the report’s lead author and a Danish climate policy expert.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the findings show countries have failed three consecutive times to meet their Paris commitments. “Governments have promised to strengthen pledges every five years — yet each cycle has fallen short,” she said.

The report highlights that only 64 countries have submitted updated national climate plans ahead of COP30 in Brazil, even though all nations were expected to do so by September 2025. Many of the submitted plans lack significant new measures.

Global setbacks and limited progress

China, the world’s largest emitter, has pledged to cut carbon and other pollutants by at least 7% by 2035, though analysts say its targets remain easily achievable and do not specify near-term increases. Other major emitters, including Russia and Turkey, submitted new pledges that appear even less ambitious than their existing energy policies.

The report also points to a sharp reversal in US climate policy: the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and rollback of renewable energy and electric vehicle incentives could raise global temperature projections by 0.1°C, given the US’s historical share as the world’s largest emitter.

The US Department of State rejected the findings, saying, “The United States does not support this report. International environmental agreements must not place undue burdens on the US.”

Under the Biden administration, the US pledged to cut emissions by 61% from 2005 levels by 2035, but the country achieved only 17%, and the target has now been abandoned.

Scientists warn of irreversible risks

This report further reinforces the belief of many scientists that the world will inevitably experience a temperature rise beyond 1.5°C. To achieve this goal, countries would need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by nearly half between 2019 and 2030, which would lead to rapid and extensive changes in the global energy economy. Moreover, global emissions continue to be higher than in 2019.

The report also indicates that the most achievable climate goal at present is to increase the temperature above 1.5°C for several decades before gradually reducing it to that level. This would require halving greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2035, followed by methods to absorb vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to lower the temperature. Both of these measures present significant challenges.

However, one major concern among scientists is that if temperatures exceed 1.5°C, even for just a few decades, it could trigger irreversible changes, including the destabilisation of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, which could lead to dangerously high sea levels for coastal communities worldwide.

Dr. Olhoff stated, “This is something many researchers are beginning to consider — what happens if genuinely ambitious action is taken this year? What does it mean in terms of the temperature exceeding 1.5°C temporarily, and is it possible to return to 1.5°C once the temperature has passed a certain threshold? It certainly carries greater risks, and it is associated with higher costs.”

The authors of the report also emphasise the benefits and opportunities of urgently needed climate protection measures, which could drive economic growth, job creation, and energy security. The low-carbon technologies required already exist, and the growth of wind and solar energy continues to exceed expectations, consistently reducing energy costs.

Achieving the necessary greenhouse gas reduction targets will require overcoming political and technical barriers, as well as significantly increasing support for developing countries.