Thai business survey finds optimism about economy despite headwinds
Thailand's economy will face several challenges in the first quarter next year, including inflationary pressure and the ongoing impact of the war in Ukraine, according to the latest survey of 200 leading executives by the Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce released on Thursday.
Despite headwinds, the survey of chamber members was generally optimistic: more than half of respondents forecast that the Thai economy’s performance will improve in the first quarter of next year.
Chamber president Narongsak Putthapornmongkol said respondents were most worried about inflation and the fallout from the war.
Narongsak said the survey, which was conducted from November 24 to December 1, aims to “predict the economic direction in the first quarter of next year".
He said respondents were less worried about rising fuel prices because they believed they were likely to drop.
The survey also found concerns about household debt, non-performing loans, currency exchange volatility, and a decline in exports.
Still, respondents were optimistic about the return of foreign tourists and more foreign investment.
"Respondents believe that the return of foreign tourists, especially Chinese tourists, and the potential to draw foreign investors into ‘new industries’ will help Thailand's economy recover quickly," Narongsak said.
The survey found that foreign investors are most interested in Thailand's electric vehicle, e-commerce, agriculture and foods, renewable energy and tourism industries.
Narongsak said the survey also found that rising consumer confidence and the government's investment in utilities are seen as additional drivers of future growth.
Moreover, 57% of respondents expect Chinese companies to increase their investment in Thailand as they select the country as a production base for Asean.
Key responses to the survey include:
When asked if they were confident that the return of foreign tourists will help the Thai economy recover, most respondents expressed optimism:
24.3% very confident
58.6% moderately confident
When asked when inflation would stabalise, slightly more than 50% of respondents said in the first half of next year:
33.2% second quarter
23.7% third quarter
21% first quarter
When asked to forecast China's economic health in the first quarter of next year compared to this year, the majority of respondents said it would either improve or remain the same:
37.6% better
32.6% remain the same
When asked about Thailand's exports to China in the first quarter of next year, about half of respondents said they would rise:
50.3% increase
33.7% remain the same
When asked about Thailand's imports from China in the first quarter next year, respondents said:
44.8% increase
32.6% remain the same
When asked about Thailand's economic performance in the first quarter next year, more than half of respondents said it would improve:
55.3% better
31.5% remain the same
10.5% slow down
When asked about Thailand's stock market in the first quarter next year, respondents were mixed:
37% rise
33.1% remain the same
27.1% drop
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