Political stability lifts Thai bourse; turnover tops 102bn baht

Thailand’s stock market rallied sharply on February 9, 2026, closing at 1,400.89 points, up 46.88 points or 3.46%, with trading turnover reaching 102,112.04 million baht. The value marked a “100-billion-baht” day for the first time in one year and five months (last seen on September 6, 2024).

During the session, the index hit a high of 1,407.74 (up 53.73) and a low of 1,384.61. The market jumped at the open as it reacted to unofficial general-election results indicating the Bhumjaithai Party had a strong chance of leading the formation of the next government, easing fears of a political vacuum.

Net buying by investor type was reported as follows: institutional investors +6,220.49 million baht, brokerage proprietary accounts +1,557.28 million baht, and foreign investors +16,535.11 million baht. Domestic retail investors were net sellers at -24,312.88 million baht.

Asadej Kongsiri, President of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), said that following the election results, the market was looking at a new government structure led by Bhumjaithai. He said it was expected to strike a balance between short-term and long-term problem-solving, with continuity from past administration. Policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, reducing living costs and supporting purchasing power would help underpin overall economic activity.

He said this would be positive for listed companies’ performance across several sectors, alongside ongoing capital-market development efforts such as the listed-company value uplift initiative (JUMP+), pushing forward a personal savings account scheme (TISA), and reforming Thai capital-market laws to modernise and speed up enforcement—measures that could further build confidence and support long-term growth in Thailand’s capital market.

Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, an executive at Asia Plus Securities, said the Thai market delivered a “surprise” rally stronger than expected after the election, responding to what he described as a “landslide” win for Bhumjaithai as the likely core party in forming a government. The market, he said, viewed this as improving stability in government formation and raising the chance that fund flows could return to Thai equities on a sustained basis.

He maintained his year-end index target of 1,440. He said support had moved up to around 1,375 from 1,350, while warning that short-term profit-taking could occur because prices had risen quickly. Investors should remain cautious, he said, but there was no need for extreme concern.

He added that investors should continue monitoring both domestic and external factors. Domestically, key issues include the government-formation process, economic policy direction and the political situation, including the case involving 44 political party members, which he expected to have limited market impact. Externally, he said attention was focused mainly on the situation in Iran.

Piriyapon Kongvanich, an investment strategist at Bualuang Securities, said Thai equities rose about 3.3% after election results led by Bhumjaithai came in well above market expectations, signalling political stability and reducing the risk of delays to the 2027 budget. He said this could support continued foreign inflows, noting foreign fund inflows of 14 billion baht year-to-date as of February 6, 2026.

Citing historical statistics, he said that after the past 10 elections the Thai market rose around 1.5%, while periods where the government held a strong majority saw gains of about 4.8% over one month. He expected profit-taking to begin appearing, but forecast the market to remain sideways-to-up, in a range of 1,380–1,440, while awaiting the cabinet line-up and policy details, before potentially rising further. He kept his year-end index view at 1,440, and 1,500 in the best-case scenario.

Ratasak Piriyanont, Senior Director of Research at Kasikorn Securities, said he held a positive view of the election outcome, based on the latest count showing Bhumjaithai in first place with 193 seats and Kla Tham in fourth with 58 seats. He said the two allied parties together exceeded half of the House, suggesting they could form a core bloc for government formation. While the combined majority was not large, he said their longstanding alliance and experience working together in multiple governments suggested they could maintain party discipline.

For investment strategy, he said the SET Index could continue to rise, though in the short term it may swing within 1,375–1,430 after the sharp jump. He added that the market still had runway for further gains if political and policy developments remain supportive and lead to a better-than-expected recovery in the Thai economy.