True moves into a stronger, more stable phase after THB6.1bn Q4 profit
True has entered a new equilibrium, underpinned by broad-based strength and all-round competitiveness, after normalised profit in Q4 2025 reached THB6.1 billion.
Thailand’s telecommunications industry is moving into a new equilibrium after several years of heavy infrastructure investment in 5G, digital networks and consolidation.
With only a handful of major players left, competition is becoming more disciplined and more quality-focused—shifting from an “expand the network” race to a stronger emphasis on revenue quality and financial efficiency.
Analysts broadly agree that the current market structure is more supportive of sustainable returns. Price competition has eased, network investment is entering the harvesting phase, and operators are increasingly prioritising average revenue per user (ARPU), higher-quality customers, and digital services.
Two Thai telecom giants—True Corporation (True) and Advanced Info Service (AIS)—are now positioned more closely in terms of network scale, customer base and technological capability.
True’s Q4 results reinforce profit momentum
After reporting Q4 2025 results with normalised profit of 6.1 billion baht, several securities analysts have turned more positive on True, forecasting full-year 2026 profit to exceed 25 billion baht.
The company has also delivered profits for four consecutive quarters, with normalised net profit of 4.3 billion baht in Q1, 4.2 billion baht in Q2, and 4.6 billion baht in Q3, respectively. Analysts say this “profit consistency” is a key point, as it signals underlying operating stability rather than a one-off boost from exceptional factors.
Another highlight was Q4 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 27.8 billion baht, up 10.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter. The EBITDA margin rose to 67.5%, pointing to materially improved cost efficiency and network management.
While service revenue was broadly flat, the clearer margin expansion suggests stronger operating leverage—allowing profit to grow faster than revenue—which analysts view as a sign of improving earnings quality.
Dividend and balance sheet strengthen investor appeal
For full-year 2025, True reported EBITDA of 105 billion baht, up 7% year-on-year, while full-year normalised (core) profit came in at 19.2 billion baht.
On shareholder returns, the board proposed a full-year dividend of 10.7 billion baht, or 0.31 baht per share, equivalent to 56% of full-year normalised profit. Analysts interpret this as a signal of confidence in forward cash flow and a factor that improves the stock’s medium-term appeal.
Net debt to EBITDA fell to 4.0x at the end of Q4, indicating an improving financial position and greater flexibility in capital management.
Key factors behind analysts’ positive outlook
Analysts attribute their constructive view of True to five factors: four consecutive quarters of profit, double-digit EBITDA growth, clear margin expansion, a relatively high dividend payout, and a strengthening balance sheet.
If True can sustain its EBITDA margin near current levels through 2026, net profit could continue to expand.
Overall, the picture suggests True is entering a more stable operating phase—and building clearer investor confidence as earnings momentum and financial strength improve.
