Thailand faces minimal risk from falling Soviet-era spacecraft
Thailand faces a minimal risk—estimated at just 0.001%—of being affected by debris from the Soviet-era Cosmos 482 spacecraft, which is expected to fall to Earth on Saturday.
According to a warning issued on Thursday by the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), the spacecraft debris is currently orbiting at an average altitude of approximately 138 kilometres above Earth.
It is anticipated to re-enter the atmosphere around 6.56pm (Thailand time) on May 10.
The projected impact point is believed to be within Canadian territory. However, experts caution that the situation must be closely monitored, as accurate predictions can only be made once the debris descends to an average altitude of 130 kilometres or lower.
GISTDA stated that the analysis was conducted using data from the ZIRCON system, developed by its research team in accordance with international standards. The agency pledged to monitor the situation and any high-risk areas around the clock, and to provide regular updates.
Earlier, the National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand (NARIT) disclosed that Cosmos 482 was launched by the former Soviet Union in late March 1972.
Its intended mission was to land on the surface of Venus. However, the spacecraft failed to escape low Earth orbit and eventually broke into several parts. Major components, including the lander module, have remained in orbit for the past 53 years.
Marco Langbroek, a lecturer and space traffic expert at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, said the spacecraft is likely to make an uncontrolled re-entry between May 9 and 10, following years of telescopic tracking.
He noted that the 495-kilogram lander may not completely burn up during atmospheric re-entry and could reach the Earth’s surface. However, he added that the risk posed to the public is comparable to that of a meteorite—extremely low.
