"Export Growth"

AN ESCALATION of the US-China trade war is likely to slash growth in Thai exports to less than half that of last year, said economists from Krungthai Bank and Standard Chartered Bank.

VOLATILITY in the baht and the flare-ups of trade wars have been dismissed by corporate Thailand as diverting the export sector from expectations of at least 9 per cent growth for the year.

FORECAST growth in exports has been raised to 10 per cent for this year by a government think tank, which is sticking with an estimate for national economic expansion of 4.2-4.7 per cent.

Although the United States has implemented various protectionism measures that will have varying impacts on trade partners and product types, certain flexibilities may limit the overall impacts and lead to trade negotiations with each partner, KResearch says after assessing the global situation.

The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) has revised up its estimate of export value this year from 6 per cent growth to 8 per cent.

The meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking on Tuesday revised upwards its forecast of export growth this year to between 6.5 per cent and 7.5 per cent from the previous forecast of between 3.5 and 4.5 per cent.

THE Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) of the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) has revised its target for this year’s export growth to 5-6 per cent from an earlier estimate of 3.5-5 per cent, thanks to a recovery in global trade, the strengthening economies of trade partners and the bright sales prospects for agricultural and manufactured products.

A PEAK grouping of private-sector financial organisations has raised its forecast for this year’s export growth to 2-3.5 per cent amid a pick-up in the global economy. But the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) warns that uncertainties over the trade policies of the United States remain a major risk.

IN SPITE of export contraction in the first five months of 2016, the Commerce Ministry is optimistic that shipments during the rest of the year will return to growth.