Thaksin likely to face challenge in reclaiming Northeast
Pheu Thai’s former dominance in the Isaan region, already diminished in the 2023 election, could weaken further in 2027 poll
If Thaksin Shinawatra’s goal is to reclaim the electoral dominance of Pheu Thai in the Northeast in the next election, his main opposition will undoubtedly come from within the current government, especially the powerful Bhumjaithai.
The Northeast has long been a stronghold for Thaksin, with the Thai Rak Thai, People's Power, and Pheu Thai parties historically securing over 100 parliamentary seats in this region. However, in the most recent election, although Pheu Thai emerged as the leading party, they lost over 50 districts.
In the 2023 election, Pheu Thai won 73 seats in the Northeast, Bhumjaithai secured 35, Palang Pracharath 7, Move Forward 7, Thai Sang Thai 5, Pheu Thai Ruam Phalang (now Ruam Phalang) 2, Democrat 2, and Chart Thai Pattana 1 seat.
Bhumjaithai's remarkable growth under Anutin Charnvirakul, supported by the influential Nevin Chidchob, is evident. Anutin’s connections within the military, particularly those formed during the 2018 National Defence College programme (NDC 61), have been further expanded.
In the last election, Bhumjaithai exceeded expectations in the Northeast, sweeping provinces like Amnat Charoen and winning 5 out of 8 seats in Surin. They also made significant inroads in other provinces such as Bueng Kan, Maha Sarakham, Kalasin, Nakhon Phanom, Yasothon, and Ubon Ratchathani.
The 2nd Army Area Command is responsible for overseeing this politically strategic region. Winning the Northeast is often seen as winning half the battle, and various parties hope to leverage military influence, as was done during the eras of Prayut Chan-o-cha and Prawit Wongsuwan.
This year’s major military reshuffle will see Lt Gen Adul Boonthamcharoen, the current Commander of the 2nd Army Area and a Buriram native and NDC 61 classmate of Anutin, retire on September 30. He is expected to pass the baton to Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang, the current Commander of the 2nd Army Corps, who will take over military control in the Northeast.
However, he may face challenges as some in the political arena are pushing for Maj Gen Chakajphong Hongthong, the current Deputy Commander of the 2nd Army Area, to assume the role of Commander.
Chakajphong has close ties to the Maha Sarakham political circle and will have the support of his classmates from the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.
Maha Sarakham is a stronghold of the Pheu Thai Party.
The first list of military transfers is expected to reach the Department of Army Personnel around August 13-14 for verification before being reviewed by Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang. On August 16, the Defence Council will convene to discuss the matter.
Two days later, Sutin, accompanied by Gen Sanitchanok Sangchan (Class 24), the Permanent Secretary of Defence, and Gen Songwit Noonpakdi , the Supreme Commander, will travel to the US for about a week. During this trip, the military transfer list, especially for key positions, will be discussed.
Sanitchanok and Songwit were classmates of Chakajphong in the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.
“The final list could be decided during the trip to the US as it provides an opportunity for discussions with the Permanent Secretary of Defence and the Supreme Commander. It's not unusual for some points to require clarification, but it's too early to say which ones since the details aren't fully available yet," Sutin noted.
Amid the declining popularity of Thaksin, who no longer enjoys the feverish support he once did across the county, all eyes are on whether the Northeast can be the starting point for reviving Pheu Thai's ratings.
