SET index expected to cross 1,500 points in H2 2024

Experts in the Thai capital market believe that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index will soar past 1,500 points in the second half of the year thanks to several positive factors, but still warn of headwinds caused by geopolitical tensions and the US Federal Reserve’s interest policy.

The positive factors likely to drive the Thai stock market up include the government’s economic stimulus campaigns, notably the digital wallet scheme, the revival of LTF (long-term equity fund) tax benefits, and profits of Thai listed companies, Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, CEO of TISCO Securities, said on Monday.

“The possibility is high for a ‘catch-up rally’ in the SET index in the second half of the year, which could cross 1,500 points from the current position of 1,350-1,400 points,” said Paiboon, who is also the president of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA) and a director of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (FETCO).

He said the government’s economic stimulus campaigns, tourism promotion policy, as well as government spending in the second half of the year will together create a positive atmosphere in the capital market.

Another important factor is the Finance Ministry’s promise to bring back tax exemption benefits for LTF, which have been suspended since 2019. If the move is successful it will attract more potential investors to the market, said Paiboon.

He also believed that like last year, the SET would again serve as a safe haven for global investors, especially from Europe and the US who will be escaping economic contractions in their home countries in the second half of the year.

Paiboon however warned investors to beware of external risk factors, including geopolitical tensions that could increase at any moment.

Pichet Sithi-Amnuai, executive director of Bualuang Securities and president of the Association of Thai Securities Companies (ASCO), agreed, saying that he too believed the Thai economy in the second half of the year would grow at a faster rate, driven by domestic consumption, government spending, and the tourism industry.

“The number of foreign arrivals this year could rise to pre-Covid levels, while the export sector will likely expand at the same level as the previous year,” he said. “Listed Thai companies will continue to make profits and attract funds from foreign investors to the Thai capital market.”

Pichet warned investors to keep a close eye on geopolitical problems worldwide as well as the Fed’s interest policy. He said the latter could slow down projected economic growth if reductions in the rates are not introduced.