Cash in on US trade policy regardless of election outcome, FTI urges

Despite the divergent policies of the two candidates, FTI president Kriengkrai Thiannukul pointed out that both view China as the primary rival.

He remarked that the battle between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, scheduled for November 5, will be pivotal. Recent opinion polls indicate a tight race in key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, which might swing the election. The victor is likely to have significant implications not only globally but also for Thailand.

In his assessment, Kriengkrai noted that both Harris and Trump share concerns regarding trade wars and geopolitical tensions with China. Thailand stands to gain from US tariffs imposed on China, as some industries may find their production bases shifting to Thailand. 

With escalating tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be a growing inclination for the US to source products from alternative suppliers, including those manufactured in Thailand.

Kriengkrai highlighted the Democratic Party’s proposal to increase tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China from 25% to 100%, alongside previous tariffs of $18 billion imposed on clean-energy imports such as solar panels. 

In contrast, Trump’s approach may entail more stringent measures, including increased tariffs on any country with which the US has a trade deficit of at least 10-20%, and significant increases for Chinese imports, ranging from 60% to 100%.

Kriengkrai asserted that China will likely perceive these actions as aggressive, stemming from US fears regarding China’s advancements in high-tech industries, particularly concerning microchip production. He cited potential collaboration between China and allies such as the Netherlands’ ASML, the sole manufacturer of certain sophisticated chips.

On environmental and industrial fronts, the candidates diverge considerably. President Joe Biden and successor candidate Vice-President Harris emphasise climate change and the reduction of fossil-fuel dependence, advocating for green energy initiatives, whereas Trump prioritises less stringent environmental considerations.

In conclusion, Kriengkrai expressed his belief that Thailand could leverage these developments beneficially. However, he underscored the necessity for a clear policy approach should Trump win; otherwise, there might be continued opportunities for trade advantages if Harris is elected, allowing for a more stable operational environment.