Global Economic Recovery on the Horizon: Navigating Uncertainty in 2025

 

The global economic outlook for the coming year is leaning towards recovery, promising renewed strength and a gradual return to normalcy, offering a wealth of opportunities for investors. However, experts warn that potential market volatilities necessitate a cautious approach.

 

These insights emerged during "Wealth Forum Thailand 2025: The New Frontiers of Investment Opportunity", a biannual event hosted by KBank THE WISDOM. Held on November 26, the latest Wealth Forum attracted over 700 attendees and hundreds more online.

 

In his opening remarks, Kasikornbank President Dr Pipatpong Poshyanonda explained the event aimed to provide essential updates on the global economic landscape and Thailand's financial environment, thus enabling investors to make informed decisions for effective portfolio management.

 

 

"With Donald Trump entering his second presidential term, we can expect several changes and uncertainties in economic and international trade policies that may disrupt market stability and impact investment in Thailand," he cautioned.

 

 

 

 

Political shifts and economic uncertainty

The first panel discussion featured Jin YueJue, Managing Director and Asia Head of The Investment Specialist Multi-Asset Solution Group at JP Morgan Asset Management, and Homin Lee, Senior Macro Strategist at Lombard Odier.

 

They provided insights into emerging investment opportunities against a backdrop of anticipated global economic conditions.

 

 

Jin noted a shift toward a “normal” economic environment in 2025, stating, “The job market and consumer spending in the US remain resilient, giving households a buffer against potential economic shocks.”
 

 

 

She cautioned, however, that “While the outlook is mostly sunny, we must remain vigilant due to underlying volatility across regions.”

 

 

Meanwhile, Homin emphasised the nuanced impacts of Trump’s policies, suggesting, "While certain measures, such as tax cuts, may stimulate short-term growth, the potential for tariffs raises medium to long-term concerns.”

 

The panellists discussed inflation's implications for investment portfolios, with Jin noting that Trump's administration could introduce inflationary pressures through tariffs.

 

“Despite some early signs of a downward trend in global inflation, the impact of tariffs could be significant,” she explained, while Homin added, “Our view is that US tariffs could spark temporary inflationary spikes, leading to potential shifts in central bank policies globally, which need to be continuously monitored.”

 

The consensus among experts suggests a complex economic environment that will demand careful navigation.

 

 

 

 

Strategic investment in uncertain times

In a panel discussion on investment strategies for 2025, speakers Wajana Wongsupasawat, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Kasikorn Asset Management, Weerapon Bordeerat, First Senior Vice President at Kasikornbank and Sorrabhol Virameteekul, Assistant Managing Director at Kasikorn Securities shared valuable perspectives on economic trends.

 

 

Sorrabhol highlighted three main drivers for the Thai economy next year, identifying domestic consumption as pivotal, even though it has faced headwinds from inflation and household debt. He explained, “Consumption will still be supported by measures such as cash distribution programmes, gradually stimulating spending.”

 

 

 

Wajana reinforced the notion of an expanding global economy, particularly in the US, but warned of challenges posed by a potential slowdown in China.

 

 

“If China cannot develop significantly, it will affect export and asset investment decisions worldwide,” he cautioned.

 

In terms of investment strategy, Weerapon proposed allocating 70% of investment to stable assets while reserving 30% for riskier ventures, such as technology stocks. “Managing this risk enhances our investment opportunities in volatile situations,” he noted.

 

 

The forum concluded with a unanimous message emphasising the importance of adaptability and strategic thinking. Although the economic landscape in 2025 is set to be challenging, experts believe that careful portfolio management, coupled with tactical diversification and a flexible approach, will enable investors to effectively navigate the uncertainties that lie ahead.

 

 

As the global economy evolves, KBank President Dr Pipatpong encouraged everyone to stay vigilant regarding market movements, promising that the bank will continue to provide insights from the Wealth Forum. These insights, he stated, aim to serve as a vital roadmap for investors striving to make informed decisions within an increasingly complex financial landscape.