Experts advise Thailand to be ready for economic shifts under Trump

TUESDAY, JANUARY 21, 2025
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The government advised to reassess its strategies, strengthen ASEAN ties and apply soft protectionist policies to remain competitive

As US President Donald Trump returns to the White House, several experts are calling on Thailand to implement both short- and long-term strategies to deal with the transition. 

At the “Geopolitics 2025 | Trump 2.0: The Global Shake Up” forum hosted by Krungthep Turakij on Tuesday, former foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara said Thailand needs to monitor Trump’s policies closely and see if they become a reality. 

“The current global polarisation – driven by the US, China and Southeast Asia – has had an impact on competition in business and technology,” he said, adding that this has caused many countries to launch rising protectionist policies to shield themselves from economic pressures. 

Former foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara

He forecasted that Trump would likely revive his “America First” policies, focusing on national economic, technological and energy interests, which could exacerbate tensions with China, particularly in trade and technology. 

Parnpree also pointed to the growing cooperation among emerging economies, such as the BRICS bloc, which comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.

While the US may reconsider its relationships with several countries, Parnpree believes Thailand’s ties with it will remain stable. However, he cautioned that Thailand must prepare for potential economic risks, particularly due to its trade surplus with the US, which could lead to higher import tariffs. 

In 2023, Thailand’s exports to the US were valued at US$284 billion (approximately 9.67 trillion baht), ranking it 12th among countries with a trade surplus.

He also noted that the relocation of Chinese companies’ production bases to Thailand could prompt stricter product screenings in the US. To mitigate these risks, Parnpree said Thailand should negotiate trade and investment deals with the US, ensuring mutual benefits. Additionally, he said Thailand should work closely with ASEAN countries and fast-growing economies to maintain economic and regional stability. 

Piti Srisangnam, executive director of the ASEAN Foundation

Piti Srisangnam, executive director of the ASEAN Foundation, echoed the sentiment, urging Thailand to swiftly adapt to changes after Trump takes over. 

“At this moment, we can see significant changes in global regulations, so long-term, sustainable adjustments should be done quickly,” he said, recommending that Thailand follow Vietnam’s public reforms and Indonesia’s partnership agreements. 

He also encouraged Thailand to develop long-term plans and leverage its role within the ASEAN to strengthen its bargaining power. 

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), raised concerns over the potential impact of Trump’s policy to bring investments back to the US. This policy could disrupt Thailand’s industrial sector as the US is offering attractive incentives like a 15-21% reduction in corporate tax. 

He warned that the influx of Chinese goods into ASEAN, as a response to US import tariffs, could affect 30 industrial groups in Thailand. He suggested that Thailand adopt soft protectionist policies to deal with this issue, such as increasing the procurement of Thai goods, seeking new export markets and accelerating free trade agreements. 

Kriengkrai also called for a revision of laws to attract investment, improve labour skills and promote the development of new industries, all aimed at boosting Thailand’s competitiveness in the global market.